Poker Odds & Probability Chart — Every Hand's Real Odds in Hold'em

The first time I set-mined a pair of fives in a live game and hit my set on the flop, the guy next to me groaned "what are the odds?" — and I actually knew: about 1 in 8.5. That one number is why I called in the first place.

Poker isn't a guessing game. Every call, fold, and shove is a probability question in disguise, and the players who win are the ones who've turned "what are the odds?" into a reflex. This is the complete poker odds and probability chart for Texas Hold'em — every made hand, every flop, every draw — with the one mental shortcut that lets you do the math at the table in two seconds.

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The numbers that matter most

Poker Hand Odds Chart: The Probability of Every Hand

• •5-card odds = the chance a single random five-card hand is that hand (the classic textbook number).
• •Hold'em (by the river) = the chance you end up with that hand after seeing all seven cards (your two hole cards + five community cards). This is the number that actually matters at the table.

The ranking follows the five-card column: the rarer a hand is among five random cards, the higher it beats — with no gaps, from high card up to the royal flush. With seven cards that holds everywhere except high card, which is rarer than one pair (43.8%) and still ranks last. That's the logic behind the poker hand rankings: probability is the ranking — measured over five cards.

What Are the Odds of Being Dealt Each Starting Hand?

Before any flop, there are exactly 1,326 possible two-card starting hands. Here's how often the ones people ask about show up.

So the next time someone says "I never get aces," they're roughly right — you'll be dealt a specific pair like aces only about once every 221 hands. But any pocket pair arrives every 17 hands, which is why set-mining is a real strategy, not a fantasy. Which pairs and suited hands are worth playing from each seat is covered in the starting hands chart by position.

What Are the Odds of Flopping Each Hand?

For set mining, 7.5 to 1 is a theoretical break-even payoff, not a sufficient stack rule: it assumes every hit wins and gets paid. In practice, the usual guideline — effective stacks of 15–20× the call — allows for missed value and losing sets; even that is a heuristic, not an automatic call. That's the bridge to pot odds, below. For the full derivation of every row here — plus the set-mining stack rule and the made-vs-draw-vs-complete flush split — see the deep dive on drawing odds and the odds of flopping each hand.

Drawing Odds: Hitting Your Flush or Straight by the River

The six-out overcard row assumes pairing either rank wins. Against two pair, a set, or a stronger draw, some or all of those pair-making cards may be dirty — discount them rather than treating six as guaranteed winning outs. The set row counts the fourth card of your rank too: a full house alone is about 29.1% from the flop and 19.6% on the turn.

The classic spot: you flop a flush draw (nine outs). You'll get there 35% of the time by the river — better than one in three. An open-ended straight draw (eight outs) hits 31.5%. Note the two columns: once the turn bricks you have one card to come instead of two, so your odds roughly halve — 35% becomes 19.6% for the flush draw — which is exactly why draws get more expensive to chase street by street.

How to Calculate Poker Odds: Counting Outs and the Rule of 2 and 4

Worked example. You have four cards to a flush after the flop. That's 9 outs (13 of your suit − 4 you can see). On the flop: 9 × 4 = 36% — the true figure is 35.0%, so you're spot on. On the turn if you missed: 9 × 2 = 18% (true: 19.6%).

That's the shortcut: clean outs → the multiplier for the cards you'll see → a draw estimate to use alongside your equity. Everything else is just knowing what to do with that number. The one skill this rule assumes you've mastered is the count itself — for combo draws, overlapping outs, and the "dirty" outs that shouldn't count, see the full guide to counting outs in poker.

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Pot Odds: Turning Your Odds Into a Call or Fold

Worked example. The pot is $100. Your opponent bets $50, making it $150. You must call $50 to win that $150.

That's the moment all the numbers pay off — but match the number to the street you're paying for. When both cards are coming (you're all-in, or the turn checks through), a clean draw's 35% beats the 25% price and calling wins money in the long run even though you'll lose the hand more often than not. When your opponent will fire again on the turn, this call only buys you the turn card — from the flop that's 9 ÷ 47 = 19.1%, below the price — and the draw then needs implied odds, the money you win on the streets after you hit, to cover the gap. Spending the ×4 number on a one-card decision is the most common way beginners overrate a draw. For the full method and the bet-size cheat sheet, see how to calculate pot odds.

How Rare Is a Royal Flush? (And a Straight Flush)

• •Royal flush: as a dealt five-card hand, 1 in 649,740. Playing Hold'em to the river, it improves to about 1 in 30,940 because you're choosing your best five from seven cards. Either way, most players go years between them.
• •Straight flush: about 1 in 72,193 as a five-card hand (about 1 in 3,590 by the river in Hold'em). Still a once-a-year sighting for most.

Why so rare? A royal flush is exactly one specific run of cards in one specific suit — four ways to make it in the entire deck versus 1,302,540 ways to make a plain high card. Rarity is the whole reason it sits at the top of the rankings.

Long-Shot Odds: Coolers, Quads, and Bad Beats

Set over set — you flop a set and lose to a bigger set — is the ultimate cooler. There's no clean single number because it depends on how many players hold pairs, but the anchor is this: you flop a set only 11.8% of the time, and an opponent doing the same on the same board is rare enough that most players remember every one. When it happens, the loss alone doesn't prove the call was a mistake — or that it was right; judge it by the price and stack depth you had at the time, not by the showdown. If you want to see exactly how those showdowns are scored, the kicker and tie-breaker rules cover every edge case.

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FAQ

QWhat are the odds of getting a royal flush in Texas Hold'em?▼

About 1 in 30,940 by the river when you play out a Hold'em hand (using your best five of seven cards). As a straight dealt five-card hand it's 1 in 649,740. Either way, most players go years without one.

QWhat are the odds of a straight flush?▼

Roughly 1 in 72,193 as a five-card hand, or about 1 in 3,590 by the river in Hold'em. It's the second-rarest hand, beaten only by the royal flush.

QWhat are the odds of four of a kind (or quad aces)?▼

Four of a kind comes together about 1 in 595 times by the river in Hold'em (0.168%), or 1 in 4,165 as a dealt five-card hand. Any specific quads such as quad aces are much longer odds — roughly 1 in 7,700 by the river. The most common route (about 57% of the time) is one ace in your hand and the other three on the board; holding the pocket pair and catching both remaining aces is rarer, and all four landing on the board rarer still.

QHow rare is a flush, a straight, or a full house?▼

By the river in Hold'em you'll make a flush about 3.0% of the time (1 in 33), a straight 4.6% (1 in 22), and a full house 2.6% (1 in 39). So a full house is actually rarer than a flush, which is rarer than a straight — exactly the order the hand rankings put them in.

QWhat are the odds of hitting a flush by the river?▼

If you flop a flush draw (nine outs), you'll complete it about 35% of the time by the river — better than one in three. On a single card (turn to river), it drops to roughly 19.6%.

QWhat are the odds of flopping a set?▼

About 11.8%, or roughly 1 in 8.5, when you hold a pocket pair. The equivalent 7.5-to-1 odds describe misses versus hits, not a recommended stack depth. A set-mining call also needs realistic future payment; the practical guideline — effective stacks of 15–20× the call — leaves room for sets that get no action or lose.

QWhat are the odds of flopping a royal flush?▼

Vanishingly small. Even when you already hold two of its five cards suited — say A♥ K♥ — the flop brings the exact Q♥ J♥ 10♥ only about once in 19,600 flops. From a random starting hand it's far rarer still, which is why almost every royal flush that gets made is completed on the turn or river, not the flop.

QWhat are the odds of being dealt pocket aces?▼

1 in 221 (0.45%) for aces specifically. Any pocket pair, though, comes around far more often — about 1 in 17 hands (5.9%).

QWhat is the Rule of 2 and 4 in poker?▼

The Rule of 2 and 4 (also called the "4-2 rule") estimates draw odds: multiply your outs by 4 on the flop for the turn and river together, or by 2 on the turn for the river alone. Nine outs give 36% over two cards by ×4, versus 35.0% exactly; ×2 gives 18% for the river card, versus 19.6%. Check the exact table when the price is close, and reserve the two-card figure for seeing both cards without more betting.

QHow do you calculate pot odds?▼

Divide the amount you must call by the total pot after your call: calling $50 into a $150 pot is 50 ÷ 200 = 25%, the equity you need. This page supplies the other half of that comparison — how often your draw actually gets there. The pricing side is covered in the pot odds guide — ratios, bet-size shortcuts and the costly mistakes.

QWhat are the odds of set over set?▼

There's no single fixed number — it depends on how many opponents hold pocket pairs — but it's rare. You flop a set only 11.8% of the time to begin with, so two players both flopping sets on the same board is the classic "cooler" that costs stacks.

QWhat's the most common winning hand in poker?▼

One pair, followed by two pair. Because every player shares the five community cards, most Texas Hold'em pots are decided by a single pair and its kicker — flushes, straights, and full houses win far less often than beginners expect. How often each hand shows up over seven cards — which is not the same as how often it wins the pot — is in the chart above.

QHow often does the best hand win in poker?▼

Less often than you'd think before the river. Even pocket aces — the best starting hand — win only about 85% of the time heads-up against a random hand, and much less against a full table. By the river the best five cards win by definition; the upsets happen earlier, when a made hand gets outdrawn by a live draw.

QHow often do you hit the flop in poker?▼

With two unpaired hole cards you'll pair at least one of them on the flop about 32% of the time — so you completely miss roughly two flops out of three. That's why position and aggression matter so much: any single opponent has missed the flop about two times in three, and the player willing to bet often takes the pot down.

QWhat are the odds of having the nuts?▼

There's no single number — the nuts (the best possible hand on a given board) changes with every board. On a dry, unpaired board the nuts might be top set; on a coordinated board it could be a straight or flush. The skill isn't memorizing an odds figure, it's reading which hand is the nuts and judging how likely an opponent holds it.

The 3 Numbers to Burn Into Memory

1. Flop a set: ~12% (1 in 8.5). The hit rate starts the set-mining calculation; stack depth and likely payment decide whether the call pays. 2. Flush draw by the river: 35%. Nine outs, Rule of 4 → 9 × 4 = 36%. 3. Pot odds beat gut feeling. Match the probability to the cards this call buys, then compare the price with your chance to win — completing a draw is not always enough.

Poker rewards the players who've made these automatic. Learn the chart, drill the Rule of 2 and 4, and start asking "what are the odds?" before you act instead of after. Next, put the math to work by learning which starting hands to play from each position, or brush up on why a flush beats a straight so you always know what your outs are worth.

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