Poker Odds & Probability Chart — Every Hand's Real Odds in Hold'em

The first time I set-mined a pair of fives in a live game and hit my set on the flop, the guy next to me groaned "what are the odds?" — and I actually knew: about 1 in 8.5. That one number is why I called in the first place.

Poker isn't a guessing game. Every call, fold, and shove is a probability question in disguise, and the players who win are the ones who've turned "what are the odds?" into a reflex. This is the complete poker odds and probability chart for Texas Hold'em — every made hand, every flop, every draw — with the one mental shortcut that lets you do the math at the table in two seconds.

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The numbers that matter most

Poker Hand Odds Chart: The Probability of Every Hand

Here's the master chart. The trick most sites skip: there are two different numbers for every hand, and confusing them is why people argue about how rare a royal flush "really" is.

• •5-card odds = the chance a single random five-card hand is that hand (the classic textbook number).
• •Hold'em (by the river) = the chance you end up with that hand after seeing all seven cards (your two hole cards + five community cards). This is the number that actually matters at the table.

The stat that surprises everyone

High card is the most common five-card hand (50.1%), but in Hold'em it drops to 17.4% — third most common, behind one pair (43.8%) and two pair (23.5%). Why? Seven cards give you so many chances to pair up that "no pair by the river" becomes the exception. More cards, more connections.

The ranking follows the five-card column: the rarer a hand is among five random cards, the higher it beats — with no gaps, from high card up to the royal flush. With seven cards that holds everywhere except high card, which is rarer than one pair (43.8%) and still ranks last. That's the logic behind the poker hand rankings: probability is the ranking — measured over five cards.

What Are the Odds of Being Dealt Each Starting Hand?

Before any flop, there are exactly 1,326 possible two-card starting hands. Here's how often the ones people ask about show up.

So the next time someone says "I never get aces," they're roughly right — you'll be dealt a specific pair like aces only about once every 221 hands. But any pocket pair arrives every 17 hands, which is why set-mining is a real strategy, not a fantasy. Which pairs and suited hands are worth playing from each seat is covered in the starting hands chart by position.

What Are the Odds of Flopping Each Hand?

This is the table most odds pages bury or split across a dozen articles. These are the odds of the flop making your hand, given the hole cards in the left column.

The one to memorize is the top row: you flop a set about 12% of the time, or roughly 1 in 8.5. That single number decides whether calling a raise to "set-mine" a small pair is profitable — you need the pot (and your opponent's likely stack) to pay you off more than 7.5 to 1 when you hit. That's the bridge to pot odds, below. For the full derivation of every row here — plus the set-mining stack rule and the made-vs-draw-vs-complete flush split — see the deep dive on drawing odds and the odds of flopping each hand.

Drawing Odds: Hitting Your Flush or Straight by the River

You have a draw on the flop. How often do you complete it? It all comes down to outs — the cards left in the deck that make your hand. Count your outs, then read across.

The classic spot: you flop a flush draw (nine outs). You'll get there 35% of the time by the river — better than one in three. An open-ended straight draw (eight outs) hits 31.5%. Note the two columns: once the turn bricks, your odds on a single card roughly halve, which is exactly why draws get more expensive to chase street by street.

How to Calculate Poker Odds: Counting Outs and the Rule of 2 and 4

You can't carry that table in your head — but you don't need to. The Rule of 2 and 4 gets you within a percent or two in one second:

Worked example. You have four cards to a flush after the flop. That's 9 outs (13 of your suit − 4 you can see). On the flop: 9 × 4 = 36% — the true figure is 35.0%, so you're spot on. On the turn if you missed: 9 × 2 = 18% (true: 19.6%).

That's the entire trick. Outs → times four on the flop → your equity. Everything else is just knowing what to do with that number. The one skill this rule assumes you've mastered is the count itself — for combo draws, overlapping outs, and the "dirty" outs that shouldn't count, see the full guide to counting outs in poker.

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Pot Odds: Turning Your Odds Into a Call or Fold

Knowing you'll hit 35% of the time is useless until you compare it to the price. Pot odds are simply: what fraction of the final pot am I paying to call? If your chance of winning is bigger than that fraction, you call.

Worked example. The pot is $100. Your opponent bets $50, making it $150. You must call $50 to win that $150.

That's the moment all the numbers pay off — but match the number to the street you're paying for. When both cards are coming (you're all-in, or the turn checks through), your 35% beats the 25% price and calling wins money in the long run even though you'll lose the hand more often than not. When your opponent will fire again on the turn, this call only buys you the turn card — from the flop that's 9 ÷ 47 = 19.1%, below the price — and the draw then needs implied odds, the money you win on the streets after you hit, to cover the gap. Spending the ×4 number on a one-card decision is the most common way beginners overrate a draw. For the full method and the bet-size cheat sheet, see how to calculate pot odds.

How Rare Is a Royal Flush? (And a Straight Flush)

The two rarest hands are the ones players brag about for years — with good reason.

• •Royal flush: as a dealt five-card hand, 1 in 649,740. Playing Hold'em to the river, it improves to about 1 in 30,940 because you're choosing your best five from seven cards. Either way, most players go years between them.
• •Straight flush: about 1 in 72,193 as a five-card hand. Still a once-a-year sighting for most.

Why so rare? A royal flush is exactly one specific run of cards in one specific suit — four ways to make it in the entire deck versus 1,302,540 ways to make a plain high card. Rarity is the whole reason it sits at the top of the rankings.

Long-Shot Odds: Coolers, Quads, and Bad Beats

Some numbers exist mostly to explain the worst night of your poker life.

Set over set — you flop a set and lose to a bigger set — is the ultimate cooler. There's no clean single number because it depends on how many players hold pairs, but the anchor is this: you flop a set only 11.8% of the time, and an opponent doing the same on the same board is rare enough that most players remember every one. When it happens, it's variance, not a mistake — the math was on your side the whole way. If you want to see exactly how those showdowns are scored, the kicker and tie-breaker rules cover every edge case.

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FAQ

QWhat are the odds of getting a royal flush in Texas Hold'em?▼

About 1 in 30,940 by the river when you play out a Hold'em hand (using your best five of seven cards). As a straight dealt five-card hand it's 1 in 649,740. Either way, most players go years without one.

QWhat are the odds of a straight flush?▼

Roughly 1 in 72,193 as a five-card hand, or about 1 in 3,590 by the river in Hold'em. It's the second-rarest hand, beaten only by the royal flush.

QWhat are the odds of four of a kind (or quad aces)?▼

Four of a kind comes together about 1 in 595 times by the river in Hold'em (0.168%), or 1 in 4,165 as a dealt five-card hand. Any specific quads such as quad aces are much longer odds — you need to either hold that pocket pair and catch both remaining cards or have all four land on the board.

QHow rare is a flush, a straight, or a full house?▼

By the river in Hold'em you'll make a flush about 3.0% of the time (1 in 33), a straight 4.6% (1 in 22), and a full house 2.6% (1 in 39). So a full house is actually rarer than a flush, which is rarer than a straight — exactly the order the hand rankings put them in.

QWhat are the odds of hitting a flush by the river?▼

If you flop a flush draw (nine outs), you'll complete it about 35% of the time by the river — better than one in three. On a single card (turn to river), it drops to roughly 19.6%.

QWhat are the odds of flopping a set?▼

About 11.8%, or roughly 1 in 8.5, when you hold a pocket pair. That "7.5 to 1 against" figure is the basis for deciding whether set-mining a small pair is profitable.

QWhat are the odds of flopping a royal flush?▼

Vanishingly small. Even when you already hold two of its five cards suited — say A♥ K♥ — the flop brings the exact Q♥ J♥ 10♥ only about once in 19,600 flops. From a random starting hand it's far rarer still, which is why almost every royal flush that gets made is completed on the turn or river, not the flop.

QWhat are the odds of being dealt pocket aces?▼

1 in 221 (0.45%) for aces specifically. Any pocket pair, though, comes around far more often — about 1 in 17 hands (5.9%).

QWhat is the Rule of 2 and 4 in poker?▼

A shortcut for draw odds — also called the "4-2 rule": multiply your outs by 4 on the flop (two cards to come) or by 2 on the turn (one card to come) to estimate your percentage chance of hitting. It's accurate to within a point or two up to about nine outs.

QHow do you calculate pot odds?▼

Divide the amount you must call by the total pot after your call. Calling $50 into a $150 pot means 50 ÷ 200 = 25% — so you need at least 25% equity to call profitably. Compare that to your drawing odds: if your chance to hit is higher, you call.

QWhat are the odds of set over set?▼

There's no single fixed number — it depends on how many opponents hold pocket pairs — but it's rare. You flop a set only 11.8% of the time to begin with, so two players both flopping sets on the same board is the classic "cooler" that costs stacks.

QWhat's the most common winning hand in poker?▼

One pair, followed by two pair. Because every player shares the five community cards, most Texas Hold'em pots are decided by a single pair and its kicker — flushes, straights, and full houses win far less often than beginners expect. The full frequency of each result is in the chart above.

QHow often does the best hand win in poker?▼

Less often than you'd think before the river. Even pocket aces — the best starting hand — win only about 85% of the time heads-up, and much less against a full table. By the river the best five cards win by definition; the upsets happen earlier, when a made hand gets outdrawn by a live draw.

QHow often do you hit the flop in poker?▼

With two unpaired hole cards you'll pair at least one of them on the flop about 32% of the time — so you completely miss roughly two flops out of three. That's why position and aggression matter so much: most flops miss everyone, and the player willing to bet often takes the pot down.

QWhat are the odds of having the nuts?▼

There's no single number — the nuts (the best possible hand on a given board) changes with every board. On a dry, unpaired board the nuts might be top set; on a coordinated board it could be a straight or flush. The skill isn't memorizing an odds figure, it's reading which hand is the nuts and judging how likely an opponent holds it.

The 3 Numbers to Burn Into Memory

1. Flop a set: ~12% (1 in 8.5). Decides every set-mining call. 2. Flush draw by the river: 35%. Nine outs, Rule of 4 → 9 × 4 = 36%. 3. Pot odds beat gut feeling. If your chance to hit is bigger than the price of the call, you call — every time.

Poker rewards the players who've made these automatic. Learn the chart, drill the Rule of 2 and 4, and start asking "what are the odds?" before you act instead of after. Next, put the math to work by learning which starting hands to play from each position, or brush up on why a flush beats a straight so you always know what your outs are worth.

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